The economic calendar is decidedly bare in European hours, with June’s Euro Zone Industrial New Orders report the only item on the docket. Expectations call for orders to rise 1.6%, the largest monthly increase in 17 months. Manufacturing figures across most key markets have shown signs of improvement in recent months on the back of aggressive government stimulus measures (often focused on infrastructure projects) and widespread inventory restocking efforts. Still, the long-term trend in orders is far from encouraging: the annualized rate of decline is set to print at -28.6%, a reading well within the range of values noted since the beginning of the year. A meaningful, sustained return to growth will require the re-emergence of private demand in the Euro Zone’s key export markets, an outcome that seems unlikely considering nearly all of them (excluding Russia) are expected to see unemployment rise at least through 2010, trimming incomes and discouraging spending.
Asia Session Highlights
With no significant economic data on the calendar, currency markets took a muted tone in overnight trading. A strong equities rally failed to translate into meaningful FX volatility: Asian shares rose on last Friday’s US Existing Home Sales and optimistic comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, both of which have already been priced into exchange rates.
Currency options markets showed the Australian Dollar rally that began in early March may be running out of steam. Options to sell the Aussie next month rose to cost 2.32% more than to buy the currency at current rates, showing traders were willing to be the biggest premium to protect against a drop in the Australian unit since mid-February. Technical positioning is supportive of a bearish scenario.
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